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Will Baker
Vice President, MSCI Research
Will Baker is a member of the MSCI research team that specializes in modeling macroeconomic-market interactions. Will holds a bachelor’s degree in mathematics from Emory University and a doctorate in mathematics from the University of California at Los Angeles.
Research and Insights
Articles by Will Baker
The MSCI Macro-Finance Model
Research Report | Oct 21, 2024 | Peter Shepard, Chenlu Zhou, Will Baker, John BurkeOur new framework links financial markets to macroeconomic factors, focusing on cash flows, discount rates, growth and inflation. It helps investors in their capital-market assumptions, risk management and asset allocation, using the MSCI Macro-Finance Model.
Macro Scenarios in Focus: Soft-Landing Baseline with Downside Risks
2 mins read Quick Take | Jul 8, 2024 | Dora Pribeli, Will Baker, Thomas VerbrakenThe Federal Reserve is signaling only one rate cut this year, compared to signaling three in March, so rates appear bound to remain higher for longer. Against this backdrop, we updated our macroeconomic scenarios to reflect the latest market data.
AI Portfolio Insights and the Future of Risk Management
Research Report | Jun 10, 2024 | Andrew DeMond, Manuel Rueda, Greg Recine, Samuel López, Vicente Albíter, Will Baker, Zach TokuraThe role of risk management for institutional investors is evolving. Risk leaders are looking to broaden their teams’ focus beyond traditional risk measurement and increase their influence with investment teams. How could AI help?
Macro Scenarios in Focus: Are US Markets Priced for Perfection?
8 mins read Blog | Apr 2, 2024 | Dora Pribeli, Will Baker, Thomas VerbrakenGlobal forecasters have recently suggested that the world economy is headed for a soft landing. Our latest market stress test looks at how this and other, less benign scenarios could affect a multi-asset-class portfolio in the coming months.
Macro Scenarios in Focus: Adapting to the New Normal
6 mins read Blog | Jan 3, 2024 | Will Baker, Dora Pribeli, Thomas VerbrakenMarkets seem to be priced for a soft landing, in which inflation returns closer to target levels and recession is avoided. We also consider two potential downside-risk scenarios: a hard landing and a resurgence of inflation.
Macro Scenarios in Focus: Higher Rates for Longer
6 mins read Blog | Oct 5, 2023 | Thomas Verbraken, Will BakerHow could higher global rates for longer than expected affect a global portfolio of equities, bonds and real estate? In our new quarterly series, Macro Scenarios in Focus, we consider four potential paths for the global economy and conduct a portfolio stress test.
Macro Scenarios: Resilient US Economy but Downside Risks Loom
2 mins read Quick Take | Jul 3, 2023 | Thomas Verbraken, Will BakerInvestor sentiment has improved since the recent banking turmoil, and a soft landing for the U.S. economy seems possible. But there is geographic fragmentation, with China’s post-lockdown recovery potentially stalling. What could it mean for markets?
Macro Scenarios: Soft, Hard or No Landing This Year?
7 mins read Blog | May 5, 2023 | Thomas Verbraken, Will BakerIn the wake of the recent banking turmoil, a soft landing for the U.S. economy now seems less likely than at the beginning of the year. We considered four scenarios and performed a stress test on a hypothetical portfolio of global stocks and U.S. bonds.
Four Scenarios for 2023: Navigating Uncertainty
6 mins read Blog | Feb 2, 2023 | Thomas Verbraken, Will BakerThe macroeconomic landscape for 2023 is shrouded in uncertainty following a tumultuous 2022. We consider four scenarios for growth, rates and inflation and gauge their potential impact on a portfolio of global equities and U.S. bonds.
Will a Rail Strike Stop the US Economy in Its Tracks?
2 mins read Quick Take | Nov 30, 2022 | Will Baker, Thomas VerbrakenWhile a U.S. railroad strike was averted in September, and the U.S. Congress is currently working on legislation to prevent the planned December strike, there is a chance it might not be avoided this time. What’s the potential impact on portfolios?
Fed Policy and the Threat of Stagflation
7 mins read Blog | Apr 4, 2022 | Daniel Szabo, Will Baker, Thomas VerbrakenInvestors are increasingly focused on inflation and the Fed’s tightening of monetary policy. With the Russia-Ukraine war and resulting sanctions, they may also worry about slowing economic growth. We model three economic scenarios’ potential impact on markets.